Australian GP Predictions

By Stephen Williams @SWilliams1702

Written in association with Missed Apex Podcast. Listen in the player below the article.

It's the first race of the F1 season this weekend and it's time to make some race and qualifying predictions and attempt to win some money from the bookies. I will also be bold in this article and make some predictions for the whole season just so I can brag about how right I was in November... Or look rather foolish.

All odds are from Skybet. Other bookmakers are available.

Australian GP Bets

Hamilton Fastest qualifier and race win - 15/8

It looks as though Mercedes and Ferrari will be the quickest teams this weekend, so it is between four drivers for pole and the race win.  Hamilton has been on pole for the last three Australian GPs, winning one of them in 2015.  Providing he gets off the line cleanly, he should manage to keep a lead as overtaking opportunities are limited around Albert Park.

Ricciardo fastest lap - 10/1

Despite having an off the pace car at the start of last season Ricciardo actually set the fastest lap of the race in Melbourne.  Being on home soil may give him that extra boost to set the fastest lap, especially if he finds himself on an aggressive strategy and fresh tyres at the end of the race.  

Toro Rosso double points finish - 4/1

A bold bet this which could be reliant on some DNFs from the cars ahead of them. Toro Rosso usually start the season strongly, they have two quick drivers and look to be around the fourth or fifth quickest teams so providing they both make it to the end of the race, this bet could have a chance.

Lance Stroll first driver to retire - 14/1

I've gone for Lance Stroll to retire first from the Grand Prix as he is the youngest and most inexperienced driver on the grid.  He has already shown in testing that he can make mistakes and there could be a good chance of this happening into turn 1 on the first lap if he finds himself in the middle of the pack.  Something that could limit the chance of this bet coming in is the reliability of the McLaren Hondas which did not manage to run a race distance during testing.  

Race winning margin under 5 seconds - 6/5

I'm predicting closer racing this year, particularly in the early parts of the season where Ferrari look to be at least an equal to Mercedes.  If overtaking is as difficult as predicted then we may end up with a faster car stuck behind a slower one.  A late safety car could also enhance the chances of this happening.

As well as the above bets, I usually bet which drivers will beat their team mates in qualifying and the race, but I only do this after seeing times from the practice/qualifying sessions. I'll let you know how I get on in my predictions for the next race.

Feel free to comment with your own predictions for the race and the season.

Please gamble responsibly.

Australian GP Predictions


  1. Lewis Hamilton
  2. Sebastian Vettel
  3. Valtteri Bottas


  1. Lewis Hamilton
  2. Sebastian Vettel
  3. Daniel Ricciardo

Safety car: Yes


Championship Predictions:

Drivers Champion: Lewis Hamilton 

Runner Up: Valtteri Bottas

Third: Sebastian Vettel


Constructors Champion: Mercedes

Runner Up: Red Bull

Third: Ferrari

Fourth: Renault


Most Pole Positions: Lewis Hamilton

Most Wins: Lewis Hamilton

Valtteri Bottas to win 3 races

6 drivers to win a Grand Prix (Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari drivers)

Hulkenberg, Perez and Sainz to finish on the podium